When you're in the bowl-projection business, it is essential to balance two competing instincts: the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it would look now, and the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it is likely to look after the season.

Throughout the season, I have been saying that 9-3 would not be good enough to get into the College Football Playoff. However, after Week 13, we now have two SEC teams with three losses that we were not expecting to be there.