The Trump administration will receive 15% of the sales of Nvidia’s H20 chips and AMD’s MI308 chips, according to people familiar with the matter. The full terms of any deal weren’t clear Monday. Shares in both companies edged lower, with AMD losing 0.3% and Nvidia losing 0.4%.

Economics textbooks insist that stock prices reflect the future stream of a company’s profits on any given day. For all the brainpower devoted to these forecasts, however, they are essentially rough estimates of what may happen over the next twelve months and wild guesses about anything after that.

US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are giving international stocks a serious lift and at the same time helping to end the S&P 500 Index’s run of global dominance — at least for now.