The chart above shows University of Oregon economics professor Jeremy Piger’s “Recession Probability Index” from 2000 to January 2008, based on the 4 monthly variables used by the NBER to determine ...
US recession risk is high, unless it’s not. Forecasting is hard, but almost every effort to project data benefits by combining estimates from several models. The Composite Recession Probability Index ...
In preparation for our course in March, please read through these ten pages of notes. The (optional) material below comes from a five-week course on "probability" which I teach at Kellogg. Please feel ...
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