Many are concerned that a deeply inverted yield curve signals a recession. When we look at the current yield curve, we see an opportunity to add exposure to fixed income. The most direct implication ...

Bull Steepening All yields fall, with short-term yields likely falling faster. Bond prices rise across the board. When the ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve is currently inverted, with yields on short-term bonds higher than yields on longer-term bonds. Some expect this to unwind with short-term bond yields falling faster than ...

Economists have been warning of a recession for so long it’s hard to remember when they didn’t warn of one. Now there’s another sign that the U.S. economy could be headed for a fall — the U.S.

The yield curve, which looks at the spread between the 10-year treasury note and the year bill, has been an excellent predictor of coming recessions since 1960, with ...

The yield curve disinverted this week, suggesting an economic recession may be near. Historically, yield curve disinversions have preceded every economic recession since 1976. Investors are reacting ...

Predicting recessions involves a lot of correlation and not a lot of causation. What many believe is the best predictor is from the Treasury market, and it’s back in focus: an inverted yield curve, or ...

A popular recession forecasting tool now shows its highest reading since 1981, signaling a high probability of a downturn in the next 12 months. The S&P 500 declined by an average of 31% during the ...

The Federal Reserve seems poised to cut interest rates soon, and fear of a recession is one driver why the central bank would want to slash borrowing costs. Steven Goldstein is based in London and ...

The current economic, inflation, and interest rate cycle has been extremely unusual, driven by the worst global pandemic in over 100 years. Governments around the world reacted in a variety of ways.